There's been quite a bit of analysis in the news, on social media, on political blogs, etc. about the likelihood of Donald Trump actually winning the GOP nomination or even the general election.
I'm not going to restate everything that has been said. The truth is that we don't know. We thought we knew - but we don’t. We thought Trump was just a summer fling - but he wasn't. We thought he'd peter out by Thanksgiving - he didn't. This one can't be predicted, which is driving a lot of pundits crazy..
Each new sensational comment that finds its way from Donald’s mouth to our years spawns a reaction not unlike the great serials that thrilled American movie goers each Saturday throughout the first half of the 20th century.
Each episode goes kinda like this:
(V.O.) When last we left Mr. Trump...
- Donald Trump makes an outrageous comment
- Politicians, predictors and pundits voice their reactions
- Some will denounce him.
- Some will defend him.
- Some will denounce his words but defend him.
- A cyclone of discussion, analysis and conjecture ensues.
- How will this impact his standing in - THE NEXT POLL?
A few days later the new surveys are out and the result is always the same. Those who already love Trump love him just a little bit more.
Then comes the end of the episode - the cliffhanger.
Although it seemed impossible Mr. Trump says something that raises his scurrilousness [sic] to an entirely new level.
{Feeze frame}
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Chris Cilliza explored this phenomenon in the Washington Post --These 3 Sentences about Donald Trump should scare the hell out of Republicans.
While I agree completely with the column, I believe there is more to fear than merely the long-term political impact on the Republican Party.
It is true that Trump can do no wrong so far, and that his peeps blindly follow him. The thing is this.
He doesn't mean any of it!
Follow his bio and you'll see that he really has no firm positions on anything. If you had to try and define his overall political leanings, it would be just slightly right of center. Most of his positions over the years have been pretty well in sync with the Democrats until November of 2008 when a majority of voters elected our first black President.
I don't think Trump has a full blown "lynch the N*****S " issue - but due to his upbringing he, like millions of Americans, could not reconcile the values he'd learned, (separate and almost equal) with the idea that a black man should be in charge.
He was baptized with a birth certificate
He jumped on the birther train early on and has not gotten off. My guess is that it started with an offhand remark he made to someone, probably in a social setting, that he had “heard” that Obama was not born in the U.S. People liked it - so he cranked it up a notch - and another notch and yet another.
He had toyed with the idea of running for President in the past - but it was just ego. When these remarks garnered national praise, he saw an opportunity.
If he would rile up the extreme conservatives with just one simple issue like birther-ism, imagine the adulation he could receive if he sang an aria from the conservative's version of the great American songbook.
He figured he might actually be able rile them up enough to choose him to spearhead the move to “Take our country back.” So far, he’s been spot on. He has the ideal personality and style to bring out latent values that have always been just beneath the surface for fire and brimstone crowd. He is the great orange-haired hope.
The scariest part
If he is nominated, his rhetoric and style should force a “yuuuge” win for the Dems with the possible unknown - if Hillary happens to implode. This seems unlikely. Up until now the Repubs have not been able to make anything stick, despite their best efforts - but - one never knows.
President Trump will have to DO something
In this unlikely scenario, the time for rhetoric will have passed. Up until now - going all the way back to his birther activities it’s all been about bravado. He never produced any results to crack even a small dent in the idea that Obama is a natural citizen (how could he?) No one cared. They loved him just for shouting the things they’d been saying - but if he ends up (oy vey) in the oval office he’ll have to do things.
Presidents don’t spend all their time on TV or in front ego-feeding crowds.
He will actually have to attend meetings - with real people. He will have to ask questions of his advisors and give them a moment or two to answer. These will be people who understand their subjects they will tell him things that he has not known or has chosen to ignore in his quest.
The insane things he claims he wants to do will not get off the ground. On the surface, that sounds good for those of us opposed to his rhetoric - but.....
... it's not good because he will have to do something.
- He will have to address homeland security issues - but he will not be able to ban Muslims from entering the country.
- He will have to address immigration reform - but he’s not going to be able to build the big wall and make Mexico pay for it.
- He will have to address jobs - but he’s not going to be able to “bring back jobs from China by being a tough negotiator”
He will not be able to accomplish nearly anything that he’s promised the red meat brigade.
So what happens then?
Pretty much nothing. The House or Representatives will still have a Republican majority but there are an awful lot of GOP members who will never vote for the radical ideas he preaches. Whether the Senate is retained by the GOP or taken over by Democrats doesn’t matter. Even if the GOP retains its hold, their advantage will shrink. They will never be able to get a 60/40 vote on anything.
So, if you enjoyed the deadlock during Obama’s administration, you’ll be ecstatic over the deadlock under a possible Trump administration.
And that’s the scariest part. Four more years of our government doing absolutely nothing.